Any start to a sporting season can bring about wild speculation and hyperbole, with champions and wooden spooners crowned due to the performance in one game.
However, after five rounds the league begins to settle, and trends start to take shape. Was that team headed for glory or was it just hot shooting? Should the other team be disbanded for atrocious play, or do they just need time to gel? After five rounds, these questions have usually been answered.
This is an excellent time for the first Aussie Hoopla Power Rankings for the 2017/18 NBL season, to give readers a better understanding on which teams are sharks and which are the ones making the rest of the ocean.
To put teams’ statistics into perspective, the power rankings are using two stats called “ORtg” and “DRtg”, or Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating. These numbers standardise teams to a per 100 possession basis, which makes comparing much simpler. Offensive Rating is the number of points a team produces per 100 possessions while Defensive Rating is how many a team gives up per 100 possessions. The higher the ORtg number, the better; and the lower DRtg number, the better.
Question of the Week
Even though they’re leading the competition, is New Zealand the most underrated team in the league?
1.Perth Wildcats
Record: 5-1
Offensive Rating (ORtg): 122.8 (1); Defensive Rating (DRtg): 109.0 (3); Net: 13.8 (1)
Are the Wildcats the best international recruiters in the business? Ricky Grace and Kevin Lisch are just two of the many (many, many etc.) big names they’ve brought to this country. But to retain Bryce Cotton, the favourite for the MVP award and pair him with the man of the moment in JP Tokoto is just genius.
If you needed evidence of the “best small forward in the league”, says Homicide, here’s exhibit A:
The rebound, the pass, the slam…
JP Tokoto to Derek Cooke Jr! pic.twitter.com/FxtkoXeVMZ
— Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) November 3, 2017
For a team that prides itself on defensive intensity, the Wildcats have the best offensive in the game right now, which spells trouble for the opposition.
Big shout-out to Angus Brandt, who has quietly become one of the best big men in Australia. He’s shooting 59% from the field from six games and is leading the league in PER at 23.1. With Matty Knight retiring, Brandt has the freedom to build on his FIBA Asia Cup experience to be a force in the middle.
2.New Zealand Breakers
Record: 6-1
ORtg: 117.2 (2); DRtg: 111.0 (4); Net: 6.2 (3)
Did anyone pick the Breakers to be leading the league after five rounds? With an ageing team and two unknown and unproven imports, the NZB have somehow formed a cohesive unit and are back in the winner’s circle.
They’re doing it with a balanced attack. Five Breakers are averaging double figures, tied with Adelaide for most of a team. A denied game-winner by Cairns could have put New Zealand off balance, but at 6-1, it’s hard to deny that this team is one of the best.
That winning shot tho ??? ?@Edgarsosa, YOU THE MAN. pic.twitter.com/KvemuHtZUu
— SKYCITY Breakers NZ (@NZBreakers) November 5, 2017
A resurgent Thomas Abercrombie, who has always been a ‘good but not great’ player has stepped up his game and is top five in the Aussie Hoopla Voter’s Choice MVP award. Shea ili has continued the positive momentum from his outstanding FIBA Asia Cup performance while Edgar Sosa and DJ Newbill are in the conversation for the best backcourt in the NBL. The duo might not have the name brand awareness, but they’re averaging more points than Shorter and Sobey, Trice and Holt and even Ware and Goulding.
3.Melbourne United
Record: 4-3
ORtg: 111.8 (6); DRtg: 104.3 (1); Net: 7.4 (2)
After a (relatively) slow start, Casey Prather has shown that his play at Perth was not a fluke. He’s third in the league in points and first in steals, fourth in PER, third in DRtg, the list could go on and on. He’s the real deal.
If Melbourne finds its feet they can thank Prather & Boone for leading through action. @cprather24 early MVP #NBL18 pic.twitter.com/eebn1utK6h
— Alex Robins (@Alexanderobins_) November 5, 2017
The help hasn’t been as consistent. Josh Boone continues to hold the mantle as best big man in the NBL, but highly touted Casper Ware and Chris Goulding have been very hit and miss.
One thing that hasn’t gone missing is their defence. This team is smothering opponents to a league-low 43% from the field. Once this team clicks on offence on a nightly basis, like they did last round against Adelaide and Cairns, the other teams will be in a very troublesome situation.
4.Adelaide 36ers
Record: 4-4
ORtg: 112.2 (5); DRtg: 108.3 (2); Net: 3.9 (4)
This is not the Adelaide 36ers squad that ran opposing teams out the door last season. They’re measured, and their defence is much, much better. The Sixers are the second-best team on the defensive end of the court so far, this year, and have dropped from first to fifth on offence from last season to now.
Which means that there is a lot to get used to, with a completely new offensive scheme that is more team orientated instead of being dominated by Jerome Randle.
Shannon Shorter has been a fantastic addition to the team and has drawn comparisons to a 36er legend in Darnell Mee. He’s tall for a point guard, loves posting up small guys, is level-headed and a great floor general. Shorter isn’t the defensive god that Mee was, but he’s exactly what this team needs.
What they don’t need is this back and forth bickering and disagreement from Joey Wright and Nathan Sobey. Wright seemed to be itching for a fight in the team’s loss to Melbourne, where he asked the umpires to give him a technical foul. The refs did one better, giving him two and ejecting him from the game.
Ask and you shall receive, we guess? Joey Wright requests a technical and Michael Aylen obliges, and then again for the ejection #ADEatMEL pic.twitter.com/EJiv5oyCb6
— NBL (@NBL) November 4, 2017
Before that incident, Wright glued Sobey to the bench, only giving the exciting guard court time with a couple of minutes to go in the second quarter. This tiff has gone on long enough, and a serious D&M needs to happen between Wright and Sobey for the sake of the team.
5.Cairns Taipans
Record: 3-5
ORtg: 107.4 (8); DRtg: 112.0 (5); Net: -4.7 (6)
Michael Carrera is as hot as you can get, both in play and in attitude. He doesn’t have the nickname “The Venezuelan Volcano” for nothing, as the Taipans’ leading scorer wears his heart on his sleeve at all times.
And it’s exactly what Cairns needs, someone who can excite the fans, and get those important buckets that the team couldn’t manage last season. The team is still last in ORtg, but give Cam Gliddon half a second more, and the Snakes would be in the top four.
A complete opposite team than the big name heavy squads, Cairns does everything as a unit. They have only one player in the top 25 in points, one in the top 20 in rebounds (not including Nathan Jawai’s one game) and centre Nnanna Egwu is leading the team in assists with 2.1 per game, good for 29th in the league.
6.Illawarra Hawks
Record: 3-5
ORtg: 113.6 (4); DRtg: 115.7 (6); Net: -2.1 (5)
This team lives and dies by its big three, and so far, it’s not looking good. Rotnei Clarke has been his sharpshooting best, and Demetrius Conger is one of the best small forwards in the game, but AJ Ogilvy seems to be having a down year. Not that his statistics have drastically dropped or anything, it’s just that he isn’t having the same kind of influence as previous seasons.
But that seems to be improving, with Nick Kay proving his worth (leading the team in assists) and Oscar Forman stepping out of the retirement home a couple of times to show that he has a heartbeat. The Hawks were 1-5 to start and have won their next two, so there is signs of life.
They need more from their role players, as Mitch Norton, Cody Ellis, Tim Coenraad and Rhys Martin have been mostly absent from the league. More importantly, is that Delvon Johnson has taken up the mantle from Michael Holyfield as the most superfluous import that won’t get axed.
The good news is that they’ve played a league-high six games away from home, which means that further down the season they should have a more favourable schedule.
7.Brisbane Bullets
Record: 2-4
ORtg: 116.8 (3); DRtg: 127.4 (8); Net: -10.6 (7)
The Bullets are struggling. They’re dead last in Defensive Rating and are one of only two teams that have not won an away game (0-2), with Perth (0-1) being the other.
It’s not that they’re losing by a massive amount, with only one loss coming by more than ten points, it’s that the team just doesn’t seem to have that killer instinct to close out a game. Out of the four losses, they have lost the fourth quarter three times.
The Bullets have two more home games against Cairns and Perth before embarking on a six-game away trip, flying almost 20,000km between the middle of November to December. I hope they have a good book (or twelve).
A fantastic find for Brisbane has been Perrin Buford, who at the start of the season was the import most fans were least excited about. Buford now leads the team in points (4th in the league), rebounds (5th) and blocks (2nd) while being top five in steals and assists for the Bullets.
Daniel Kickert has been his ultra-efficient self, going 56/50/96 from the three shooting percentage areas, but Travis Trice needs to get back to being his old self because 41% from the field and third in the league in turnovers is not good enough.
8.Sydney Kings
Record: 2-6
ORtg: 109.9 (7); DRtg: 121.2 (7); Net: -11.3 (8)
This team…is a mess. Everyone has heard the complaints, the insults, the poor performances, so here’s a short rundown:
- They’re too short, with Perry Ellis (201cm) starting at centre
- They have no true point guard
- They have no heart or hustle
- The third import that has been teased for a few weeks is nowhere to be found
- Signing Jeremy Kendle was not a needle mover
It’s not that they are losing, it’s the way they are losing. Perry Ellis has been great and is leading the league in points, but there seems to an air of insignificance over the Harbour City. That the team has already lost this season and are just running out the rest of the schedule.
The Kings have talent, but no amount of talent can make up for lack of effort.
For more information on why it’s such a dire situation in Sydney, read Aussie Hoopla’s open letter that caused such a disturbance that General Manager Jeff van Groningen to make a quick rebuttal on the podcast.