Somehow, someway, Melbourne United clamored into the fourth and final spot of the 2020 NBL Playoffs. Following a rollercoaster season of perpetual ups and downs, Melbourne were able to peak at exactly the right time, defeating Cairns and South Melbourne to clinch their ticket to the finals.

Ironically, by finishing in fourth position United and the Sydney Kings will play a rematch of last years first round matchup, only this time the tables have been more than turned over. A significant disposition from last season in which the reigning champs hosted a somewhat unlikely Kings team (who had struggled early in that season), this situation is considerably different.

With new rosters, new imports and a new coach on one side, the ladder leading Sydney Kings are the deserved favourites against an inconsistent United squad which struggled over a long stretch of the season.

The elephant in the room in this series is none other than Casper Ware Jr, the star and driving force of Melbourne’s two straight grand final appearances and title in 2018. Just last year, Casper torched Jerome Randle and the Sydney Kings, commanding United’s 2-0 sweep of the series.

After a well publicised salary disagreement, however, Casper took his talents to Bondi Beach, inking a deal that even trumped Melbourne United’s largest ever salary offer in club history. Making his desire to defeat United well known, he proceeded to torch his former team in all four matchups this season, averaging a staggering 29 points per game, approximately 10 points higher than his season average. This level of performance propelled Sydney to a 3-1 head to head lead against Melbourne this season.

Boasting an impressive roster of 3 imports, including two all NBL team players, alongside reigning MVP Bogut, next star Didi Louzada and a string of formidable role players, Sydney has been a frontrunner for the title since the early rounds of the season. Based on this resume, alongside Casper Ware’s stellar form, the Kings are the rightful favourites in this series, with many predicting a clean sweep.

Had this series taken place at an earlier stage in the season, a sweep would almost seem definite as Melbourne struggled to achieve consistency and team chemistry at numerous stages. After bouncing back from a tough early season schedule, United struggled to find unity once again during the months of December and January.

In desperate need of a shake up, coach Dean Vickerman obliged, providing what has proven to be a minor masterstroke of strategy. Moving Melo Trimble to the bench in favour of Shea Ili has worked on many levels.

Firstly, the move has enabled both Chris Goulding and Trimble to get in rhythm on offense, allowing time for each to be the focal point at different stages.

The other result has been a strengthening of their bench unit, a now formidable lineup featuring Trimble, Kidd, Loul-Acuil and Smith-Milner. A final by product of this has been on the part of Shea Ili. Rather than having to create offense off the bench, he has been able to focus on his strong points, namely the defensive end.

Since this switch up, Melbourne United have been transformed into a team which is able to effectively utilise its level of talent, and as a result, were able to get the wins required remain alive this season.

If Melbourne are to have any chance in this series, Chris Goudling and Melo Trimble will have to continue their recent vein of form, maintaining a balance of scoring from starting to bench lineups. On the opposite end, Melbourne must slow down the scoring of Casper Ware (if possible) and find a way to counter JaSean Tate’s clear athletic advantage over David Barlow at the power forward position.

Obviously the home court advantage will play a major factor. Melbourne United have played particularly better at home. Another interesting point to note is that the only win Melbourne were able to get over Sydney took place at Melbourne arena and featured a bizarre outburst from Kings coach Will Weaver leading to his ejection from the game.

While the 3-1 head to head advantage is important, this current manifestation of Melbourne United is superior to that of the team that Sydney has faced throughout the regular season.

If Melbourne can continue this level of continuity and performance on both ends they will be in with a shot, contrary to popular belief.

Both game 1 and 2 could well be comfortable wins for the Kings but if United’s recent form is anything to go by, hopefully we will see a highly competitive matchup. Whatever happens in game 1 Saturday night, this is sure to be an entertaining series and an entertaining finals overall.