With the Olympic draw now complete it appears that Australia have finally appeased the basketball gods as a favourable draw and the surprise exclusion of some world powers clear the way for a possible medal run.
The Boomers are in Group B alongside a stacked yet internationally inexperienced Nigeria, the post-Nowitzki era Germans, and an Italian team that may yet suit up with Danilo Gallinari of the Atlanta Hawks.
Nigeria, Germany and Italy are not opposition to sneeze at, but they certainly aren’t the perennial powerhouses that Serbia and Brazil are.
The Germans shocked Brazil 75-64 at the qualifying final in Croatia to secure their first Olympic berth in 12 years, while Italy put Serbia to the sword on Serbian turf, 102-95.
These surprise results make Australia the favourite to top Group B and if they fulfil that promise they’ll escape a quarterfinal match up with the consistently dominant USA and Spain.
The Boomers fell to Spain 95-88 at the last world cup in what was one of the great FIBA semi-finals and would be keen to avenge that loss with a medal on the line rather than in the knockout phase.
The Americans, who the Boomers would also rather not cross with too early, are unbackable favourites to sweep the tournament, fielding a team headlined by scoring savant Kevin Durant and eleven other former or current NBA All-Stars.
Due to COVID 19 Olympic basketball will be streamlined to help avoid viral exposure with three groups of four teams ensuring less games are played overall.
The top two teams of each group make the quarterfinals along with the two best third-placed teams of the competition.
The winners of each group and the best second placed team will go into one pot, while the remaining second placed teams and the two best third placed teams are in the other.
Both pots are drawn against each other at random to select the quarterfinal match ups however teams wont be matched with other teams from their original group.
If Australia finishes first in their group, their quarterfinal matchup will likely be one of the Czech Republic, Argentina, Slovenia and France.
The Boomers would walk into any of those matchups as favourites with France being a possible coin toss.
France and Australia split games at the World Cup in 2019, most pertinently as a tired and depleted Boomers fell in the Bronze medal game.
The Boomers’ lack of depth at guard and injuries to Aron Baynes were deciding factors, coming to the fore to help dissolve a 15 point first-half lead.
This time around Australia has the greatest guard depth it possibly has ever had, with Matthew Dellavedova, Patty Mills, Dante Exum and Josh Green.
The Boomers’ wings are also impressive, with one of the NBA’s best three-point shooters Joe Ingles backed up with one of the NBA’s premier defenders, Mattise Thybulle.
But if depth is the downfall of the Boomers it will be in the big man stocks.
The Boomers enter the tournament with only four traditional “big men” – Aron Baynes, Jock Landale, Nick Kay and Duop Reath.
Aron Baynes is coming off of a poor season by his own admission, missing much of the Raptor’s season due to injury and underwhelming form.
Jock Landale and Nick Kay have been impressive in their respective competitions but neither provide the size and backup grunt that could adequately replace Baynes should he fall into foul trouble.
The answer to who will fill that hole may come down to mystery man Duop Reath.
Duop Reath is not a household name for many Australians but he has a notable pedigree, having played in the Euroleague for Crvena Zvezda, albeit in spot minutes.
Outside of a few short YouTube clips and some statistics that are hard to judge given his sparse minutes , there little that can be said definitively about Duop Reath, but he’s clearly impressed in Boomers camp, earning himself a green and gold jersey and a contract with Australian coach Brian Goorjian’s Illawarra Hawks.
If the Boomers are to medal in Tokyo, a lot will rest on the shoulders of this enigmatic man from South Sudan.
The Boomers begin their Olympic campaign against Nigeria on Sunday the 25th of July at 6.20 pm AEST.