Eleven months ago, during the Australian national team’s final practice match before flying out to compete at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, Jock Landale went down with an ankle injury that changed the course of the Boomers’ medal hopes.

Prior to that game against South Sudan, pundits considered that tournament to be the Boomers’ first chance to win a World Cup medal and their best chance to win gold to date.

Instead, the Boomers suffered a disappointing loss to Luka Doncic’s Slovenian team (84-100) and went on to finish in tenth place. As the team prepares to face China in Melbourne, in the same format of leading in games for the Olympics, the roster tells a different story.

In 2023, the centre spot was clearly the weakest on the team, and losing an NBA-caliber talent like Landale was always going to hurt.

This was evident in the knockout loss to Slovenia when centre Mike Tobey scored 18 points and 12 rebounds. His early dominance really set the tone for the Boomers’ elimination.

Although his time with the Houston Rockets this past NBA season was limited (he averaged just 13 minutes in 56 appearances), his return to the Boomers lineup is critical.

His absence at the World Cup led to veteran Nick Kay playing the bulk of the minutes (23mpg) at the 5, and he continues to put up big numbers (16p/9r) in the Japanese B-League. Kay may not be the flashiest of players, but he’s been with this group since 2019 – captaining the squad in the absence of NBA talent during qualifiers. His versatility and dependability should see him make the squad.

Duop Reath also stepped up, averaging 8 pts and 2.6 rebounds at the World Cup, and his showing earned him a permanent roster spot on the Portland Trailblazers this season.

Most notably, his development as an outside threat—he shot 35% from 3 in the NBA—has been remarkable. Could this lead to some double-big lineups at the Olympics with two of Kay, Landale, and Reath on the floor?

Rounding out the squad for the practice matches is Will Magnay, who is coming off a championship with the Tasmania JackJumpers, and Jack White, who is capable of playing minutes at centre.

White had a big year in the G League and has just re-signed back with Melbourne United. He led the Boomers in FG% at the World Cup, and while his spot isn’t a lock, his ability to rebound and guard big bodies may have him in contention. Magnay is probably the best of the rest playing in the NBL, but with Landale, Reath and Kay all seemingly locks for the final squad, he will miss the cut.

Landale’s return is pivotal to the Boomers’ fortunes, both depth-wise and tactically. He remains a strong threat from beyond the arc, and we should see some tandem lineups with Reath that allow one to roam more and chase blocks without needing to stay home and protect the rim at all times.

Where Jock’s return changes the outlook of the backcourt, the lack of shooting that was apparent at the World Cup may force some changes across the guards and wings. We saw Josh Giddey take the reins as the primary ball handler for the Boomers, leading Australia in both points (19) and assists (6). This led to more of an off-ball role for fan favourite Patty Mills – who was traded mid-season to the Miami Heat – and he led the team in 3-point attempts (6.2) ahead of Joe Ingles (4.4), and rightly so.

Dante Exum impressed off the bench at guard, showing a willingness to get to the rim. He was rewarded with a return to the NBA this season, where, together with Josh Green, he made an NBA Finals appearance with the Dallas Mavericks.

Shooting is a massive concern for the Boomers, and the more they can rely on Giddey and Exum to create open looks for Mills and Green (who shot 38% from 3 in the NBA this season), the better.

We will still, of course, see some minutes with Mills at lead guard, but Patty will be 36 at the Olympics, and the Boomers will need to manage his minutes and take the pressure of bringing the ball up off him as much as possible.

Youngster Dyson Daniels can also carry the ball and create. While his lack of shooting hurts his ability to stay on the floor, he established himself as the best point-of-attack defender for the New Orleans Pelicans – a team that included first-team all-defence Herb Jones. Daniels’ ability to take the opposition’s best guard and his switchability on defence should see him land a spot on the final roster.

Rounding out the guard depth for the Pre-Tournament squad are veterans Matthew Dellavedova and Chris Goulding – the latter who received the final spot at the World Cup following Landale’s injury, and NBL duo DJ Vasiljevic and reigning Finals MVP Jack McVeigh.

While Goulding barely saw court action at the World Cup, this team could sure use some shooting. A strong showing from McVeigh could very well see him get a look in to take the final guard spot – but for now, Goulding will remain ahead in the pecking order.

The Boomers have plenty of versatility and depth in the SF/PF positions. The Aforementioned Goulding, McVeigh, Ingles, and Green can all play the 3 depending on lineups and add some shooting.

Matisse Thybulle endeared himself to Aussie fans at the last Olympics with his defensive play, and he continued to show that this season – he had a stretch for the Trailblazers where he recorded a steal in 27 straight matches. His lack of shooting, however, hurts him – and he hasn’t seen competitive basketball since March after an ankle injury.

Xavier Cooks is an interesting one. Coming off a season in which he was waived by the Washington Wizards, he won a title in China. He notably averaged 8 rebounds to go with 13 points, and his ability to switch into centres and hold his own with that rebounding ability may see him get the nod.

Coming off a season with the Orlando Magic where he saw limited minutes (17mpg), Joe Ingles may seem one who’s spot is no sure thing. At 36, could the coaching staff be thinking about an eye for the future? 4.4 of Joe’s 5.5 FGAs at the World Cup were threes, and we think Goorj will continue to trust him to find his rhythm and lean on his playmaking from the wings.

Fans might wonder if there’s enough skill differentiation between Cooks, Thybulle, Daniels, White, and Ingles. Most of this crop are defensive-minded wings who can switch and add a little rebounding, but that’s a lot of players with similar skill sets who would likely be on the bench.

The lack of specialist shooters may see one of them miss out to make way for a Goulding or McVeigh. It would be great to see McVeigh put on an impressive showing against international opposition and demand that specialist shooter role off the bench – but Goulding has runs on the board and has been with this crop for a long time. It may not be the popular selection with Boomers fans, but he is ahead in the pecking order. Landale’s return and the need for a sharpshooter will likely see Jack White miss the cut by a whisker.

FINAL SQUAD PREDICTION
G: Mills, Giddey, Exum, Daniels
F: Cooks, Thybulle, Ingles, Green, Goulding
C: Landale, Reath, Kay